Weather Outlook for the National Tropical Hurricane Center (NTC Miami, FL)
Weather outlook
Updated: Friday August 2, 11:57
The National Hurricane Center determines Invest 97L as a potential cyclone 4 which is nothing more than a disturbance with a high chance of developing into a depression or a tropical storm and could affect a country in the short term.
At 1100 AM EDT (1500 UTC), the disturbance was concentrated near latitude 20.9 North, longitude 76.6 West. The system is moving toward the west-northwest at about 10 mph (16 km/h). A turn toward the northwest is expected at a slower forward speed tonight or Saturday, followed by a turn toward the north Sunday. On the forecast track, the disturbance is expected to move over Cuba today, cross the Florida Straits Saturday, and then move near or over the west coast of Florida Saturday night into Sunday.
Maximum sustained winds are around 30 km/h (28 mph) with higher gusts. The disturbance is expected to strengthen into a tropical depression Saturday as it moves through the Florida Straits, followed by intensification into a tropical storm Saturday night.
* Probability of formation up to 48 hours... high... 70 percent.
* Formation probability up to 7 days... high... 90 percent.
The estimated minimum core pressure is 1012 MB (29.89 inches).
The only precipitation that affects Cuba is rainfall, which can produce accumulations of 2 to 4 inches (50-100 millimeters) slightly higher in isolated locations. Strong storms can generate strong gusty winds and increase surf.
Friday, August 2, 2024 8:10 AM
For the North Atlantic, the Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:
Straits of Florida and Eastern Gulf of Mexico (AL97): A well-defined tropical wave is currently producing a broad area of disorganized showers and thunderstorms over Española, the southeastern Bahamas, eastern Cuba, and adjacent waters of the southwest Atlantic. This tropical wave is expected to move near or over Cuba during the day, then emerge over the Straits of Florida this evening or Saturday.
Environmental conditions are expected to be favorable for further development, and a tropical depression could form this weekend in the Straits of Florida or eastern Gulf of Mexico near the Florida peninsula. Tropical storm advisories or warnings may be required for parts of Florida later today.
Regardless of its development, heavy rains could cause flash flooding in parts of Florida, Cuba and the Bahamas through the end of the week. Residents and travelers in these areas are advised to closely monitor the development of this system.
A NOAA hurricane hunter aircraft could investigate the system later today, if necessary.
Probability of formation within 48 hours: Average, 50%.
Probability of formation within 7 days: High, 80%.
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