Cuba's future in the next few years in the face of current scarcity challenges

Cuba's future in times of shortageTravelling to Cuba in times of shortage: what you need to know

Introduction

Cuba, a mythical Caribbean destination, continues to captivate with its cultural richness, paradisiacal beaches and timeless atmosphere. Yet behind the postcard images, the island is facing a profound crisis. Fuel shortages, food shortages and power cuts punctuate daily life, revealing structural flaws in its economic and social system. These challenges, exacerbated in recent years, raise questions about Cuba's future: what can we expect in the coming years?

How might these challenges shape the traveler's experience?

This article explores the current situation, its roots, impacts and prospects, while highlighting the unique resilience of this country and its people.

Table of contents

1. The root causes of the shortage in Cuba

2. Daily life in Cuba: coping and resilience

3. Impact on tourism

4. Government solutions

5. Travel advice

6. Conclusion and outlook

1. The root causes of shortages in Cuba

Shortages in Cuba are not a recent phenomenon, but they have reached critical levels in recent years. Several factors intertwine to explain this complex situation:

-US economic sanctions: Reinforced since 2019 under the Trump administration, they limit Cuba's access to international markets, technologies and financing. Although often singled out by the Cuban government, they are only part of the problem.

-Effects of the pandemic: The sharp drop in tourism, a major source of foreign currency, has deprived the island of essential resources for importing fuel and food.

-Dependence on imports: Cuba imports around 70% of its food needs, a vulnerability exacerbated by low agricultural production and fluctuating world prices.

-Low investment in infrastructure: Decades of under-investment have left power grids, roads and factories in a dilapidated state, making the country susceptible to breakdowns and logistical bottlenecks.

But beyond these immediate causes, structural factors play a key role. The centralized economic model inherited from the Soviet era is struggling to adapt to the realities of the global market. The loss of support from the USSR in the 90s, followed by the crisis in Venezuela - a strategic ally - revealed the fragility of a poorly diversified economy. Without far-reaching reforms to boost productivity and attract foreign investment, these shortages are likely to persist for years to come.

2. Cuban daily life: resourcefulness and resilience

In the face of shortages, Cubans display a remarkable ingenuity, nicknamed the "resolve". This ability to adapt, rooted in decades of challenges, is based on strong community solidarity and a flourishing informal economy. Barter, black markets and small private initiatives fill the gaps left by the state. Yet the situation remains trying:

-Power cuts: In some regions, these last up to 22 hours a day, forcing residents to use makeshift generators or reorganize their lives around the rare hours of power supply.

-Food shortages: Basic products such as rice, oil and chicken are often missing from state stores. In response, many people cultivate urban gardens or raise animals in their backyards.

-Public transport: Fuel scarcity has reduced the number of shared buses and cabs, forcing Cubans to turn to carts, bicycles or hitchhiking.

This resilience is a strength, but it has its limits. While it enables us to survive from day to day, it does not compensate for the urgent need for systemic improvements to guarantee a better quality of life in the long term.

3. Impact on tourism

Tourism, the mainstay of the Cuban economy, is feeling the full impact of the shortages. And yet, the island's cultural heritage, landscape and revolutionary history still hold undeniable appeal. Travelers should nevertheless expect some adjustments:

-Accommodation: casas particulares (bed and breakfasts) may be affected by power cuts, although upmarket hotels often have generators.

-Transport: Inter-city journeys are less frequent and slower due to fuel shortages, sometimes forcing you to rethink your itinerary.

-Food: While tourist restaurants are supplied by private networks, the variety of dishes is limited by the availability of ingredients.

Despite these challenges, Cuba remains welcoming. Local guides and hosts redouble their efforts to offer a memorable experience. In the future, tourism could be an engine for economic recovery, notably through niches such as medical tourism (thanks to Cuban expertise in health) or ecotourism, provided the government stabilizes basic infrastructures.

4. Government solutions

The Cuban government is attempting to respond to the crisis with various initiatives, although their implementation is hampered by political and financial constraints:

-Agreements with economic partners: Ties with Russia, China and Venezuela provide support, but do not fully compensate for losses due to US sanctions.

-Renewable energies: With its strong solar and wind energy potential, Cuba could reduce its dependence on imported oil, but investment in these sectors is moving slowly.

-Urban agriculture: Encouraging local production aims to reduce imports, but this requires land reforms and greater access to seeds and fertilizers.

-Economic reforms: The rise of cuentapropistas (private entrepreneurs) is promising, but more ambitious changes - such as decentralization or opening up to foreign capital - are essential to boost the economy.

An under-exploited asset is biotechnology. Cuba excels in medical research and could develop health tourism (vaccines, innovative treatments) as a source of revenue. These solutions, if properly implemented, could lay the foundations for a turnaround in the years to come.

5. Travel advice

Visiting Cuba today requires specific preparation, but the experience remains unique and rewarding. Here are some practical recommendations:

-Cash: Bring euros or Canadian dollars, US dollars in cash, as American bank cards don't work and ATMs are rare.

-Basics: Bring soap, medicines, batteries and portable chargers, which are often hard to find locally.

-Accommodation: Opt for hotels or casas particulares equipped with generators or solar panels to limit the inconvenience of power cuts.

-Flexibility: Unexpected events (bus delays, cancelled services) are part and parcel of travel. An adaptable attitude is essential.

-Immersion: Enjoy Cuban hospitality and be inspired by the creativity and resilience of the people.

A trip to Cuba, even in times of crisis, offers a plunge into a world where solidarity and ingenuity take on their full meaning.

6. Conclusion and outlook

Cuba is going through turbulent times, but it has not lost its essence. Fuel, food and electricity shortages are putting its inhabitants to the test, yet the island retains a vibrant soul, carried by its culture, history and the tenacity of its people.

Cuba's future will depend on its ability to meet a number of challenges: reforming a rigid economic model, modernizing its infrastructure and opening up to the world. Its assets - an educated population, biotechnology know-how, strategic geographical position and rich cultural heritage - could pave the way for renewal. A lifting or easing of U.S. sanctions would also provide a welcome breath of fresh air.

For travelers, Cuba remains a destination apart. The experience may be marked by the unexpected, but it is above all an encounter with authentic humanity and a lesson in resilience. In the years to come, the island could either stagnate under the weight of its constraints, or surprise with its ability to reinvent itself, as it has so often done in the past. One thing is certain: Cuba leaves no one indifferent.