ATTENTION – This article concerns the purchase of all-inclusive packages in the South and not individual plane tickets (called “only” flights) and is mainly relevant to residents of Quebec. I am not a travel expert, and the information contained in this article may require clarification or correction. I will be happy to provide them if they are brought to my attention.
Best times to buy South packages
The travel industry has changed, but myths persist
Like many Varadero (and South in general) enthusiasts, I am looking to know when and where to buy to get the best prices. I have been researching and compiling statistics for several years to obtain conclusive data.
I don't have a "miracle" answer, but I have compiled enough information that seems reliable to me and that travel advisors have partially validated.
So here is what I would like to share with you.
Why there are no more (or almost no more) “last minute deals”
First, you have to know that more and more people are traveling, so planes fill up faster. In addition, computer systems have become much more sophisticated. Before, there was often a long delay between the time when information was collected, compiled, and then analyzed before a decision could be made. Was there room left on the plane? They sold out.
Now, highly sophisticated algorithms allow tour operators to make long-term projections and then adjust them almost in real time. Analyses supported by artificial intelligence tools take into account many factors such as traveler habits, weather, and purchasing trends. “Outliers” such as sargassum seaweed or political insecurity can also be incorporated.
One consequence of having access to accurate data is the development of offers such as the "price drop guarantee" to encourage travelers to book earlier. The fewer packages left to sell, the less tour operators need to lower prices to ensure profitability.
Can we still find real “deals”?
Yes, but less and less. You have to be very flexible on destinations, dates, types of hotels, etc. The "deals" rarely concern 4.5* hotels and above, especially for Varadero. Tour operators prefer to maintain a certain price scale and notoriety.
You have to be prepared to leave at the last minute and choose from “leftovers,” much like going to the bakery or farmers market at the end of the day. If you deliberately wait until the last minute, you’ll see prices go up and down. The best values and the best hotels go first.
Periods when deals are rare
Times like Christmas, March Break, or the two weeks of construction rarely offer “real deals.” Demand is very high during these times because parents can travel with their children without missing school days.
Tropical storms and hurricanes
One factor that can create a sudden supply of good deals is tropical storms and hurricanes. If a destination suffers damage, demand will decrease, which could result in better prices to avoid losses. On the other hand, prices for other destinations could increase.
Why do we rarely see “deals” for 9, 10 or 12 day trips to Varadero?
The deals are often for 7-day stays and sometimes 14 days. Tour operators optimize their operations by avoiding empty seats for 7-day periods.
When to buy a package if “last minute deals” are rare?
If you need to travel on specific dates and have your sights set on one or two specific hotels, “price drop guarantee” offers are a great option. Prices are adjusted almost in real time as demand changes.
“Black Friday” and “Cyber Monday”
Personally, I have observed that many tour operators increase prices before these events and then announce "bargains" that are not always advantageous. However, some specialists say that there can be real "deals" among the offers.
2017 Best Times to Book Study
The results of a study published in 2017 and broadcast on Global News, among others, seem interesting, although I am not sure if they concern packages and not just plane tickets:
Varadero, Cuba:
Best time to book: 4 months before your trip or the 1st week of December.
Best time to fly: 1st week of March (except during March break in Quebec).
Best time to buy for peak season travel: 3rd week of October for pre-Christmas travel.
Best time to get last minute deals: 1st half of March for travel in the 3rd week of March.
Low demand periods for Canadian travellers
There are certain periods that are difficult to sell for airlines and tour operators. For example:
June and September: Difficult periods to sell due to hurricane season and back-to-school season.
First weeks of December and January: Demand is low before Christmas and after the school break.
April (except Easter): Demand will depend on weather conditions and when Easter falls.
Buying directly online vs. an agency
For Quebecers, purchases on sites without a Quebec agency license are not covered by the Travel Agents' Client Compensation Fund managed by the Office de protection des consommateurs. Make sure that sites like RedTag have a Quebec license.
Tour operators such as Vacances Transat, Vacances Sunwing, and Vacances Air Canada all have an agent's license for the sale of packages. This provides some protection by the OPC.
Benefits of using a travel advisor
Personally, I prefer to do my research myself and then seek the advice of a travel advisor. She can relay my special requests and will be there if any issues arise. This has been especially helpful during health issues prior to a trip or during events like Hurricane Irma in 2017.
Conclusion
There is no magic formula for buying South packages. By better understanding the dynamics of the “travel world”, this can help us make better decisions.
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