60% chance in 48 hours / 90% chance in 7 days
Central and western Caribbean Sea: Disorganized showers and thunderstorms over the central Caribbean Sea are associated with a large area of low pressure.
Environmental conditions appear favorable for development, and a tropical depression is likely to form over the next two to three days as the system moves slowly westward across the western Caribbean Sea.
Thereafter, development is likely to continue as the disturbance meanders over the western Caribbean Sea until the weekend. The system is expected to start moving slowly northwestwards early next week. Interested parties in the western and northwestern Caribbean Sea should monitor the progress of this system.
Probability of training within 48 hours...average...60 percent.
Probability of training over 7 days...high...90 percent.